Robert Kennedy once said, “The glory of justice and the majesty of law are created not just by the Constitution – nor by the courts – nor by the officers of the law – nor by the lawyers – but by the men and women who constitute our society”. But how do we determine the people who make up our society? Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution mandates that every ten years the population of the United States should be counted. The United States Census Bureau gathers data directly and indirectly to determine the make-up of the population. It’s a ton of data. The next Census will happen in 2020 and it will require the Census Bureau to count more than 330 million people. After that data is collected it will be used to determine district lines, the number of seats in the House of Representatives, and billions of dollars worth of federal funding. It’s a big job, and it has some major consequences. This blog post will explore the methodology used in gathering data for the U.S. Census, and asses some of the potential room for error.
This video was created by the U.S. Census Bureau to describe the process the Census Bureau intends to take in 2020. The major change from previous Censuses is the department’s intended use of “Administrative Data” and data collected from other agencies, state governments, local governments, and some commercial sources. According to the video the Census Bureau will cross-analyze this data to predetermine what houses are vacant in an attempt to save time and money. Merging data from third party sources can be a powerful asset, but it has the potential to create serious issues. The source data may be incomplete, inaccurate, or misleading without any logical way to deduce what the Bureau may have or what they are missing. This potential issue is amplified by the fact that the 2020 Census is seriously underfunded. The new technology may save money in the future, but right now the technology being used to collect and compare source data isn’t being properly tested as a result of underfunding.
Another way the Census Bureau is attempting to save money and increase response rates is by having respondents answer survey questions online. In 2016 the Census Bureau released the 2020 Census Operational Plan which states a goal of 55% of the U.S. population will be responding through the internet. The Government Accountability Office raised concerns about fraudulent responses. Unfortunately, two of the three tests that were planned to evaluate the effectiveness and validity of the new system were canceled due to budget concerns. In an effort to protect citizens against fraudulent response rates the Bureau intends to send citizens an access code to the survey through the mail. The major problem I see with this is that is concedes one of the greatest benefits of an online survey- not everyone has a physical mailbox.
Vulnerable populations like minorities, people who don’t speak english, people who experienced abuse, and people who are experiencing homelessness don’t always have a mailbox to be contacted through. As a result, they have often been overlooked by the Census Bureau time and again. Congress and the Supreme Court have made it illegal for the Census Bureau to use data sampling for the Census, and the current plan proposed for the Census doesn’t account for this oversight. In fact, the 2020 Censes will have 200,000 fewer Census workers on the ground, which has the possibility to heighten that oversight.
In many ways the Census serves as a backbone for the American system. It is a vast and complicated process, and any error can result in serious issues for the effectiveness of our government. Right now, I am worried about the room for error that exists in the plan for the 2020 Census. It is critical that the Census Bureau has the funding and tools it needs to increase the validity of their work.
Sources:
Kennedy, John. “Address by Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy at the Law Day Ceremonies of the Virginia State BAr.” The United States Department of Justice, 1 May. 1962, https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/ag/legacy/2011/01/20/05-01-1962.pdf
US Census Bureau. “About the 2020 Census.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, United States Census Bureau, 30 Aug. 2018, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/about.html.
Uscensusbureau. “2020 Census Innovations: Streamlining the Count Using Administrative Data.” YouTube, Uscensusbureau, 27 Jan. 2017, www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=106&v=g4_r1LggI7Y.
US Census Bureau. “About the 2020 Census.” Census Bureau QuickFacts, United States Census Bureau, 30 Aug. 2018, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/2020-census/about.html.
Chang, Alvin. “How Republicans Are Undermining the 2020 Census, Explained with a Cartoon.” Vox.com, Vox Media, 30 Aug. 2018, www.vox.com/2018/5/7/17286692/census-republicans-funding-undercount-data-chart.
Data/Society/Decision-making Spring 2019 